Thursday, March 22, 2007

Conservatives will let Clean Air Act die?

Today's National Post gives a great analysis of the trials and tribulations of the Clean Air Act over the last few months. According to the article, the Tories are likely to let the Clean Air Act die on the order paper and simply bring out regulations for Large Final Emitters using existing legislation. Article author John Ivison explains that two factors are at work. Firstly, a majority of Canadians are pro-Kyoto and want action on climate change. Perhaps more importantly, the special legislative committee on the bill have made a huge number of suggested amendments that make any eventual vote over an amended bill not worth it for the Conservatives.
In terms of eventual regulation targets for LFEs (with an accompanying emissions trading system), the article mentions a likely target of 20% below 2004 levels by 2020.

Tories having second thoughts on Kyoto

My comments: As far as I can tell (based on the Climate Action Network's background documentation and the legislative committee meeting transcripts I've seen), the Clean Air Act was largely a huge waste of time and would have possibly set up some serious regulatory loopholes. So good riddance, if its true that the legislation will die. Meanwhile, however, that 20% below 2004 levels target - by 2020(!) - looks pathetic. We need to have absolute targets in 2020 that are substantially below the Kyoto targets - the EU is recommending 15-30% below 1990 levels, and we probably need even tougher targets.
Personally, I am open to the argument that it is unrealistic to impose full Kyoto targets on industry for 2008-2012 because the timeline for adaptation is too short and industry was led to expect easier targets by previous government negotiations. Maybe we can let them off the hook a bit, something along the lines of gradually tightening targets that get us to 1990 levels by 2012, and Kyoto levels by 2014, for example. But there is absolutely no reason to set 2020 targets that are lower than Kyoto. Let's hope Harper keeps backtracking and backtracking...

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