Greenhouse Gas Emissions Targets: Greenpeace reiterated the long term CANet targets of 25% below 1990 by 2020 and 80% below 1990 by 2050. No one else advocated a specific target. NRTEE presented on its work on achieving a 60% reduction by 2050, and the CCC emphasized the need to respect investment cycles and Canada's energy-intense economy. Dr Jaccard made the point that setting targets is irrelevant if you don't have the policies in place to achieve them. Everyone agreed with a key NRTEE point - that long-term targets are needed ASAP, and that short-term targets have to be developed within a long-term plan.
Achieving Canadian Kyoto targets: Greenpeace says its achievable, but when pressed didn't have a detailed analysis of how. The CCC says it is impossible without doing very serious damage to the economy. Dr. Jaccard says at this point it isn't doable - domestically it is impossible and international credits will be in short supply, potentially causing price spikes. He also talked about his work in 98-99 for the feds, where it looked like the only way to achieve Kyoto domestically would have been the equivalent of a $120-150$/tonne carbon tax starting in 2000.
Emissions intensity targets: Lots of discussion on this. Greenpeace says its a bad idea and often gets used to mask lack of absolute reductions. They cited Canada's 1990-2004 intensity gain of 14% while absolute emissions rose 27%. The CCC supports the intensity approach because it doesn't penalize emitter growth. Dr. Jaccard says that intensity targets can work but you will need the capacity to increase them if growth exceeds predictions.
Emissions trading: Some discussion of the large final emitters system (now of course the "Clean Air Industrial Regulatory Framework"...who comes up with these zingy names? so catchy!) Greenpeace advocates absolute targets, no permit price cap, and having industry cover 50% of our reductions (this would make for a much more ambitious target than the 45-55 Mt aimed at right now). Dr Jaccard points out that the LFE/CAIRF system will be compulsory and so will probably achieve some reductions, but that still leaves the other half of the economy.
Policy effectiveness: Dr Jaccard focused on this issue. He cited a few big trends based on global experience to date with climate change policy:
- voluntary policies don't work - we can't depend on subsidies, information campaigns and moral suasion
- we can't count on energy efficiency - its more expensive to implement than thought, and there is evidence that the energy saved just gets used up by new energy-using devices
- we need compulsory policies - his biggest point - be it cap and trade, a carbon tax, or standards, policy needs to have teeth
- focus on emissions rather than efficiency.
- the likely winners - he sees them as a mix of zero-emissions fossil fuels, renewables, nuclear, and some efficiency. ( I should point out that he's well-known and somewhat controversial for his writing on clean coal and other fossil fuels technology)
Link to all transcripts.
My comments: The most interesting thing for me here was Jaccard's comments on policy effectiveness, especially the key point that we need to focus on compulsory policies. I found his point on energy efficiency interesting; its also been made by George Monbiot in his book Heat. I haven't had a chance to look at energy efficiency in depth so I won't comment on it further. Re our Kyoto targets, I'm pretty much convinced by the mountain of respected Canadian environmental analysts chiming in to say its just not possible at this point. What I'd like to see now, though, are some proposals for achievable domestic reductions. How close to Kyoto can we get?
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